:   谡 '̺'
뿡  ѱ ȸ ȭǸ, ȸ ٲ Ͽ. پ ȭ ο ȸ е ԵǴ , ſ ܼϰ ֡ȥ ͰǴ 踶 桯 ʹ١ ǥǴ ָ ϱ ָ ̺, ȥ ȥ , ָ ϴ ȥ ǡ ϰ ȭǰ ִ.



谡 ɼ ε     ϰ ȴ



Ư, ſ ȸ ν ȭ ޼ӵ ȭǰ ִµ, ġ ȸ ȥſ л 2012 36.1% 67% ũ þ. κ ȥ Ű Բ ڷμ ˾ƺ ȸ Ѵ. , ֱ ξ ܼ Ÿ Ѵ.Personality and Social Psychology Review Ǹ 翡 ij ɸ 縸 Ƶε κ Ρڿ ܼϰ 踦 Ųٰ ߴ. ׵ Ƶ ̷ ֳ , ȥ ϴ 踦 Ű Ͽ ϴ δ" ϸ, ̷ (Progression bias)̶ ҷ.



̺

Ƶ ̷ ϴ ' ' ̺̳ ȥ ư ϳ ߴ. ̶ ڽ ޲ٴ ̻ ; Ѵ. , ǿ ڽ ̻ ʴ ֳ ȥ ϰ Ѵ. ̷ο ڽ ̳ ڷ ڽ ޲ ̻ ̹ ̹ ϸ, ڽ ü ü Ѵ.׷ 谡 ִµ, 谡 ε κ ϰ ȴ. , ʱ⿡ ð ϰ, 谡 ǰ ð ϰ Ǹ, Ͽ ϳ ϰ Ѵ. ׸ ε ̷ ȥ Ѵ. , 谡 Ǹ ɼ ο Ŀ 迡 ڿ ̷ ᱹ ̺ ߻ϴ Ŀ ̺ ȥ ư . ̷ , ȿ ִ ٸ ŷ ܵ ڰ ̷ 迡 ӹ ȣѴ. , ̳ κΰ ٽ Ȯ .



߻ϴ

ȿ ߻ϴ پ 鿡 ϴ. ȭ 鿡 ̰ ģ 踦 ׷ ڼ ɼ . ׷ , ڽ ̻ Ÿ Ƽ⺸ٴ ڽ ڸ ɼ ϴ ̴. 鿡 θƽϰ ڽſ ĥ ִٴ η ִ. ̷ , ڽ ޿ ׸ ̾ ɼ ִ θǽ ȸ ġ Ѵ. ׷, ϸ ̳ ڿ Ѵ. ε ͱ ϸ ġ ȴ. Ǹ, ο 踦 ̲ ȴ. ̷ ΰ κΰ ȴ. , ð ڽ ο Ŀ. ᱹ, 翡 ٰ Ҿϰ ϸ, 翡 ִٰ . ϰ ؼ, ڽŰ ̴ ӵǴ ̻ ̺ ϱ ƴ.

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